Liberal Japan

Recent News:

• 2007/07/07 Approval rating for Abe Cabinet slips to 32%, The Yomiuri Shimbun; “The approval rating for the Cabinet of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dropped 2.4 percentage points from a survey in late June to 32 percent, and the disapproval rating increased 2.1 percentage points to 53.9 percent according to a third nationwide Yomiuri Shimbun survey conducted ahead of this month’s House of Councillors election. … Abe’s handling of the resignation of Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma, who stepped down after making inappropriate remarks about the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, is believed to have had an impact on his approval rating. … Eighty-two percent of the respondents considered Kyuma’s resignation a matter of course, but only 12 percent said he did not have to go. … Abe has tried to limit damage by repeatedly explaining government measures to deal with the missing pension records, but 27 percent of the respondents said their worries about pensions had increased; nine percent said they felt better; and 48 percent said their opinion was unchanged on the issue. The three surveys have indicated that the pension records scandal is acting as a tailwind for the Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, and as a headwind for the LDP. … In the three surveys, 25 percent, 22 percent and 24 percent, respectively, said they would vote for the LDP in the upper house election, with 25 percent, 24 percent and 23 percent, respectively, saying they would vote for the DPJ. In the proportional representation blocs, the LDP registered 22 percent, 21 percent and 22 percent, respectively, and the DPJ 24 percent, 22 percent and 25 percent, respectively. The results of the three preelection surveys, which show the DPJ enjoying greater support, are similar to the results of surveys held ahead of the 2004 upper house election, when the opposition party significantly increased its number of seats.

Asahi Shimbun graphs:

Take a look at this neat graph from the Asahi Shimbun, then I’ll explain it to you:

There are two graphs. The upper half graph relates to the 2004 upper house elections, which the DPJ narrowly won, mostly by taking seats away from the small parties. The lower graph relates to the upcoming upper house election. The vertical axis of this graph shows the percentage of people who stated they would vote for either the LDP (red) or DPJ (blue). The horizontal axis shows the dates for which the lower graph polls were taken. The upper graph is correlated with the lower graph in such a way that we can compare what the situation was like in 2004 with the situation now. For example, the most recent survey results for the upcoming upper house election show that if the vote were held today 25% of the people asked said they would vote for the DPJ, while only 19% said they would vote for LDP. Now we can compare this with the situation in 2004 when it was about one month before the election. At that time 21% of respondants said they would vote for the LDP and while only 17% said they would vote for the DPJ.

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Who would you vote for? The following graph plots out responses (date: 6/23-6/24). (red=LDP, blue=DPJ, green=Komeito, pink=communist party, pale blue=socialist party.) From the Asahi Shimbun:

The following graph shows Abe’s approval rate (blue) and disapproval rate (red), from the Asahi Shimbun June 30 - July 1 poll:

Previous News:

• 2007/07/05 With month to go, LDP in worse shape than 2004, The Asahi Shimbun; “Public opinion polls conducted by The Asahi Shimbun show that, for now at least, the Liberal Democratic Party is facing an even graver situation than the last Upper House election in 2004, when pensions were also a hot issue. In that race, the LDP won 49 seats to 50 for opposition Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan).”
• 2007/07/05 Poll: Voter interest up from previous election, The Yomiuri Shimbun; “Sixty-eight percent of eligible voters are interested in the House of Councillors election to be held on July 29, an increase of 12 percentage points from a similar survey before the previous election in 2004, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun survey. However, the proportion fell below the 71 percent recorded in a survey ahead of the 2001 upper house election, which attracted a lot of attention due to the high approval rate of then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s Cabinet.”
• 2007/07/02 DPJ widens lead over LDP, support for Abe at record low: Kyodo poll, Kyodo News via Yahoo!; “The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan has widened its lead over Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the run-up to the July 29 House of Councillors election, a poll of eligible voters conducted over the weekend by Kyodo News indicated Monday. The percentage of respondents who said they will vote for the DPJ or a DPJ candidate in the proportional representation block in the election rose 2.4 points to 24.5 percent. The rate for the LDP dropped 1.9 points to 17.9 percent. A similar trend was seen for the single- and multi-seat prefectural constituency contests with 22.9 percent of respondents saying they would back the DPJ, up 0.9 point, and 19.2 percent expressing support for the LDP, down 2.2 points. Meanwhile, the approval rating for Abe’s Cabinet has fallen to a record low of 32.0 percent, down 1.5 percentage points from a week earlier, the poll showed. The results apparently reflect voters’ discontent with the continued pension records fiasco, the ruling bloc’s railroading of key bills in the closing stage of the parliamentary session and a gaffe about the atomic bombing of Japan in 1945 by Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma. The disapproval rate for the Cabinet edged up 0.4 point to 58.1 percent, according to the poll conducted Saturday and Sunday of 1,792 eligible voters, of whom 1,257 responded. The poll also showed that 52.4 percent think it would be better if the ruling camp loses its majority in the upper house, up 4.1 points. Those who favor the ruling camp maintaining its majority came to 32.5 percent, down 4.0 points.
• 2007/07/02 Abe Cabinet approval rating hits lowest 28%: survey, , Kyodo News via Yahoo!; “The approval rating for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet sank to the lowest 28 percent, and the disapproval rating rose to the highest 52 percent, Japanese daily newspapers said in survey reports published Monday. The record-low approval rating since Abe took office last September came in a weekend nationwide opinion poll by the Asahi Shimbun and the highest disapproval rating came in the survey also conducted over the weekend by the Mainichi Shimbun. Both surveys underlined a tough road ahead for the Abe administration toward the July 29 House of Councillors election, the first national parliamentary election since he took office. The Asahi survey showed that the approval rating fell from 31 percent in its previous survey a week earlier, sinking to the 20 percent level for the first time since the 2000-2001 Cabinet of then Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori. But in the Mainichi survey, the disapproval rating rose from 44 percent in the previous survey in May to hit the record-high 52 percent, reaching the 50 percent level for the first time since February 2001 during the Mori Cabinet …”.
• 2007/06/24 Approval rating for Abe Cabinet stands at record-low 33.5%, Kyodo News; “The approval rating for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet came to 33.5 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from three weeks ago, marking a record low since he assumed the premiership last September, a Kyodo News survey showed Sunday. The disapproval rating rose 9 points to 57.7 percent, according to the nationwide telephone survey conducted over the weekend with the aim of gauging voters’ attitudes ahead of the July 29 House of Councillors election. The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan garnered the largest support among respondents with a support rating exceeding that for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party by 0.6 point in constituencies and by 2.3 points in the proportional representation block. The poll, to which 1,217 eligible voters responded nationwide, was the first in a series of five polls to be conducted before the election. The survey also showed that 48.3 percent of the respondents want to see the ruling coalition of the LDP and the New Komeito party lose a majority in the upper house, compared with 36.5 percent who expect the coalition to maintain the majority.”
• 2007/06/19 51% do not support Cabinet, The Asahi Shimbun; For the first time, more than half of voters do not support Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet, according to an Asahi Shimbun survey taken over the weekend. The nonsupport rate of the administration climbed to 51 percent from 48 percent a week earlier, while the support rate fell to 32 percent from 34 percent.
• 2007/06/13 29% prefer Minshuto, 23% back LDP in poll, The Asahi Shimbun; “According to an Asahi Shimbun survey conducted on Saturday and Sunday, 29 percent of voters would choose Minshuto or its candidates under the proportional representation system if the Upper House election were held now, compared with 23 percent favoring the LDP or its candidates.”
• 2007/06/11 Social security a high priority issue for voters: poll, Kyodo News via The Japan Times; “On which political party they support, 42.6 percent of the respondents said the LDP, compared with 20.0 percent who said the Democratic Party of Japan, the country’s main opposition party. A total of 3.9 percent backed New Komeito, 3.3 percent the Japanese Communist Party, 1.5 percent the Social Democratic Party, 0.4 percent the People’s New Party, and 0.2 percent New Party Nippon.”
• 2007/05/30 Cabinet support rate hits record low 36%, The Asahi Shimbun; “Asked who they would vote for if the Upper House election were held now, 26 percent of the respondents picked Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party or its candidates in the proportional representation system, down from 31 percent in the previous survey. On the other hand, 25 percent said they would choose the main opposition party, Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan), or its candidates.”
• 2007/05/17 Poll: 28% would vote for LDP now, The Asahi Shimbun; “Twenty-eight percent of voters would pick the ruling Liberal Democratic Party or its candidates under the proportional representation system if the Upper House election were held now, an Asahi Shimbun survey showed. In comparison, 21 percent said they would choose main opposition party Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) or its candidates, the survey showed.”

Old comments:

The upshot here is that DPJ is in a far better position than they were in 2004 and they won in 2004.

Some have said that voter turnout might be low, and this might help the LDP who have more hardcore support. Maybe, or maybe not. A new article in the Yomiuri today stated that “Sixty-eight percent of eligible voters are interested in the House of Councillors election to be held on July 29, an increase of 12 percentage points from a similar survey before the previous election in 2004, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun survey.”

Things are looking very good for the DPJ at this time. The biggest question they have at this point is probably who should be the face of their campaign. Ichiro Ozawa or minshu-kun (link opens video).

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2007/07/03 Yesterday, Shinzo Abe’s support rate seem to be nearing Mori levels in some polls. Yoshiro Mori was an infamously unpopular Prime Minister.

Today, we learn that if the election were held today, according to a Kyodo poll more people would vote for the DPJ than the LDP, 24.5% to 17.9% in the proportional representation block, and 22.9% to 19.2% in the single- and multi-seat prefectural constituency contests. Also, according to the same poll, Abe’s disapproval rate is a stunning 58.1%, and his support rate is a record low (for Kyodo news) of 32%.