Liberal Japan

Comment:

2007/06/24 — Today, Shinzo Abe appears on NHK, the LDP contemplate how many seats they must lose before Abe has to go, Fujimori considers throwing his hat in the ring but wonders how that will affect support back home in Peru, and Shisaku says the LDP are back to old tricks. Links and short selections below.

Recent News:

• 2007/06/24 Abe vows to take on pension and other key issues in upcoming election, Kyodo News; “Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged Sunday to address pension record-keeping blunders and other matters of ‘big concern’ to the Japanese public in the July 29 House of Councillors election. Appearing on the public broadcaster NHK’s Sunday Debate program, he said he plans to explain to Japanese voters how his government will tackle the pension scandal and shoulder the responsibility for it. Abe said he has ‘humbly’ accepted his dwindling public support ratings and characterized the upcoming upper house election as ‘a good opportunity’ to help restore confidence in his government. … The 52-year-old premier said that during the election campaign he will again advocate a revision of the Constitution in three years from now. But he acknowledged, ‘The hurdle to constitutional revision is extremely high,’ alluding to strong public support for the war-renouncing Article 9.”
• 2007/06/24 LDP drawing lines in sand over July poll/But members disagree how many upper house seats would keep Abe safe as premier, The Yomiuri Shimbun; “As the July 29 House of Councillors election draws closer, members of the ruling and opposition camps are discussing how many seats they will need to ensure victory, and how much responsibility Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should take for the results. … To secure a majority in the upper house, the ruling camp needs to win 64 seats, including those of independents cooperating with the ruling parties. … [Mikio] Aoki appears to be suggesting that if the party fails to obtain 64 seats, Abe will, as LDP president, find his position called into question. … But LDP members differ over how far short of 64 seats the party could fall before Abe’s position is put in jeopardy, especially as the LDP is battling against a political headwind stemming largely from problems over management of the pension system. Many LDP members have pointed to 44 seats, the number the LDP secured in the 1998 upper house election, and which prompted Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to step down, as a possible tipping point. …”
• 2007/06/24 Fujimori to decide soon on Upper House run, “His remarks suggest he is giving thought to the likely reaction among his supporters in Peru should he decide to run. The Japanese-Peruvian also holds Japanese nationality. Japan’s Public Offices Election Law allows a person to file a candidacy even if under house arrest abroad. If Fujimori decides to file, it would be the first time a former head of state has run in a Japanese national election.”
• 2007/06/24 The LDP Under Abe Shinzō: We are the Bourbons, Shisaku; Interesting discussion about how the LDP is back to their old ways …

Quotes (from 2007/06/23):

Our duty isn’t just to think about winning the election, but to think about what we should do for the people and the nation. Those politicians who don’t agree had better quit. — Shinzo Abe

I’ll do whatever I want to do, because I was elected prime minister. I’ll take responsibility if I fail. — Shinzo Abe

We may be soundly defeated unless the prime minister explains the reason for delaying the election. There’s a possibility that, after the election, the Cabinet might resign en masse, and the Abe administration might collapse. — Yoichi Masuzoe

Perhaps being forced to campaign under the worst possible circumstances might turn out to help us. — Mikio Aoki

Previous News:

• 2007/06/22 The Mother of All Defeats, Shisaku; “I will have to write a lengthier post on the motivations driving this brain-dead stupid idea … If the 12-day extension of the Diet session passes …” You simply have to read the rest!
• 2007/06/23 Abe gambles on election delay / But premier’s move may not have desired effect in a July 29 poll, The Yomiuri Shimbun; “Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made a last-ditch effort to move the date of the House of Councillors election from the originally scheduled July 22 to July 29, in defiance of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s upper house caucus and its coalition partner, New Komeito, by extending the current Diet session by 12 days.” Reasons for the extension — many will be vacationing, less voter turnout might favor LDP who have strong local supporters. More time for pension criticism to soften. However, an extension gives newcomers in the DPJ more time to gain recognition by the people.
• 2007/06/23 DPJ’s popularity jumps; LDP’s halves, The Yomiuri Shimbun; “Thirty-one percent of respondents to a recent Yomiuri Shimbun survey said they prefer the Democratic Party of Japan, while only 26 percent said they liked the ruling Liberal Democratic Party–half that of a previous survey–according to results released Friday. …According to the Internet poll ahead of next month’s House of Councillors election, the DPJ’s popularity rating has jumped 11 percentage points, while that of the LDP has fallen 24 points, compared with a similar survey taken just before campaigning began for the September 2005 House of Representatives election. …” This was an internet survey of 1000 Internet users. It doesn’t say but I would guess they were sent emails and asked to respond.
• 2007/06/22 Abe prevails over Aoki on poll decision, The Asahi Shimbun; “There may be a political price to pay. A major rift has developed between Abe and Mikio Aoki, the powerful head of the LDP Upper House caucus. Abe wants the bill, which aims to create a new mechanism for finding jobs for retiring central government ministry officials, to pass on his watch in this Diet session.” This article explains in detail the differences between Aoki and Abe had over extending the elections.
• 2007/06/22 Upper House poll now set for July 29, The Yomiuri Shimbun; “The government and the ruling parties approved plans Thursday to extend the current Diet session by 12 days, delaying next month’s Upper House election by one week to July 29, officials said.”
• 2007/06/23 What grades will Abe bring home at term’s end?, Observing Japan; ” … this Diet extension has the unmistakable air of an undergraduate’s asking for an extension on a paper the night before the due date — even though the date was clearly marked on the syllabus months before.”
• 2007/06/21 The opposition’s divine wind, The Economist; “After long abjuring the need, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, on June 21st extended the current session of the Diet (parliament) into early July. This means postponing scheduled elections for half the seats in the Diet’s upper house by a week, to July 29th. The move smacks of desperation. … the pensions issue, says Takao Toshikawa, editor of Tokyo Insideline, a newsletter, has become the DPJ’s ‘divine wind’, referring to the storms that saved Japan from invading Mongol fleets in the 13th century.”

Links:

• Wikipedia: House of Councillors
• Introduction to Japan’s Political Parties: 1874-1998

Political Parties:

• Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP)
• Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
• Social Democratic Party of Japan (Japanese only)
• Japanese Communist Party
• New Komeito

Japanese Links:

• 参議院