Liberal Japan

This post has:
1. Some short commentary on the April 22 local elections in Japan.
2. Some election results from April 22 and April 8 in table format
3. My own study notes with lots of links (not necessarily well-edited).

Enjoy.

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The biggest news for the election was that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) lost one seat in the House of Councillors, and the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) gained one seat. Many saw this as a good sign for the ruling party, which is the LDP. Nevertheless, there were some interesting trends that were favorable for the DPJ.

First, LDP won in Okinawa because they had a strong base (in the prefectural assemblies) and they managed to get just enough of the swing vote to win. But, despite the LDP victory, the DPJ gained a far larger slice of the swing vote in Okinawa, 61%. Compare this to Fukushima where they managed to get 66% of the swing vote and win.

For The DPJ to win in the up coming Upper House elections they need the swing vote more than the LDP does, because they have less of a firm base. This is why gaining seats at the local level is so important. In both elections DPJ managed to do this, so that is actually a good sign too.

Nevertheless, the DPJ strategy in Okinawa seemed confused, switching midway. First they focused on local union issues, then switched to national issues. First they avoided the U.S. air base issue, then they emphasized it. So no consistent message.

Then, in Fukushima, the DPJ seemed to win by keeping their distance.

The DPJ seem to have a message problem. Maybe Ozawa is focused on strategy and not content? If so, will this prove a big mistake?

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April 22, 2007 City Assemly Election Results

	Results (women)	before
LDP	570 (27)	814
Democratic Party	362 (42)	292
Komei Party	954 (274)	1140
Communist Party	749 (295)	940
Socialist Party	138 (23)	239
Other	80 (57)	92
No affiliation	4986 (375)	6718
Total	7839 (1093)	10246

 

April 22, 2007 District Assemly Election Results

	Results (women)	before
LDP	149 (12)	267
Democratic Party	65 (21)	75
Komei Party	92 (26)	172
Communist Party	77 (34)	130
Socialist Party	8 (3)	19
Other	12 (9)	34
No affiliation	49 (11)	127
Total	452 (116)	837

 

April 22, 2007 City/District Head — Election Results

Support base	Results (women)
LDP/Komeito	21 (1)
Democratic Party	2 (0)
LDP & Democratic Party	18 (0)
Communist Party	1 (0)
Socialist Party	0 (0)
Other	0 (0)
No affiliation	53 (2)
Total	452 (116)

 

April 8, 2007 Prefecture Assemly Election Results

	Results (women)	before
LDP	1208 (27)	1309
Democratic Party	374(42)	205
Komei Party	180 (11)	178
Communist Party	97 (48)	107
Socialist Party	52 (7)	73
Other	41(5)	75
No affiliation	580(47)	687
Total	2532(187)	2634

 

Source: Asahi Shimbun, morning print edition, April 9 2007 and April 23 2007.

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STUDY NOTES:

Ruling, opposition camps split by-elections: DPJ takes Fukushima; LDP wins Okinawa, Japan Times, April 23, 2007

• [fact] Teruhiko Mashiko, 59, of Fukushima held onto his seat in the Upper House.
• [fact] Teruhiko Mashiko was backed by the DPJ and [Shizuka Kamei’s] New People’s Party.
• [fact] Teruhiko Masahiko beat Isamu Yamaguchi, 69, who was a member of the LDP and also backed by the New Komeito.
• [fact] Teruhiko Masahiko is a former member of the House of Representatives, while Isamul Yamaguchi was a former prefectural assembly chairman.
• [fact]Aiko Shimajiri of Okinawa won a seat in the Upper House.
• [fact]Shimajiri defeated Yoshimasa Karimata, 77.
• [fact] Shimajiri was an LDP member, Karimata was backed by the opposition parties, including the DPJ.[Simajiri was BACKED by LDP. Not clear is she is a member or not.]
• [fact] Shimajiri is a former Naha city assembly member.
• [opinion] The election of Shimajiri “expected to provide a boost to the central government in starting moves to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps Futenma Air Station within the prefecture. The government effectively withheld taking any steps on the relocation out of fear of adversely impacting the by-election.”
• [fact] “Aside from the two by-elections, ballots were cast for mayoral elections in 77 cities, 96 towns and villages and 13 Tokyo wards. Also up for grabs were hundreds of seats in local assemblies.”
• [fact] “In Nagasaki, Tomihisa Taue, 50, a former city bureaucrat, beat Makoto Yokoo, after a tough battle whose outcome did not become clear until midnight. Yokoo, 40, is the son-in-law of former Mayor Itcho Ito, who was the leading contender in the mayoral race before he was shot Tuesday by a gangster and died hours later.”
• [opinion] “Voters opted for the candidate with more experience in the city’s bureaucracy, rather than a relative of the trusted slain mayor but who was a total outsider who hadn’t even been living in Nagasaki.”

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Okinawa victory gives pre-July boost to ruling coalition, Japan Times, April 24, 2007

• [opinion] “…the victory in Okinawa effectively served as a referendum on the government’s controversial plan to relocate the U.S. Marine’s Futenma base from Ginowan to the Henoko area of Nago, both in Okinawa.”
• [opinion] “The result was 1-1. But it virtually means victory for the ruling coalition, because it grabbed a seat in Okinawa.”
• [opinion] “The ruling party needed the victory in Okinawa both to gain momentum for July and to boost military ties with the United States.”
• [fact] “Japan and the U.S. finalized a comprehensive base realignment agreement last May that calls for a replacement facility for the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to be built in Henoko by 2014. Once the replacement base is built, about 8,000 marines and their families will be relocated to Guam.”
• [opinion] “The Futenma issue has been a thorn in U.S.-Japanese relations for at least a decade.”
• [opinion] “The opposition was stunned by the loss.”
• [opinion] “While the seat in Okinawa was a symbolic gain for Abe, the ruling party is still not attracting independent or floating voters, who were critical to buoying Koizumi’s ratings throughout his tenure.”

In Okinawa, pocketbook trumps U.S. base issue, Japan Times, April 23, 2007

• [opinion] “Voters across Okinawa chose lifestyle and pocketbook issues over concerns about U.S. bases by sending former Naha assembly member Aiko Shimajiri to the Upper House on Sunday.” [This is too hasty a conclusion. There might have been other factors.]
• [fact] “Meanwhile in Ginowan, where the U.S. Marine base of Futenma is located, the mayor who has long demanded that the base be relocated outside the prefecture won re-election.”
• [fact] “In the weeks leading up to the election, local media surveys showed Okinawans were more concerned about the present state of the prefecture than the future of the bases. Shimajiri favors relocating Futenma off the coast of Henoko in northern Okinawa, while Karimata campaigned on moving the base outside the prefecture.”
• [fact] “Exit polls showed voters whose top priority was Futenma voted for Karimata. But voters who were more worried about the local economy or lifestyle issues went for Shimajiri, whose slogan of “change politics from the kitchen” was designed to give her a populist image.”

Comment: If this is all true, then why did a mayor in Ginowan who demanded the base be removed altogether win by wide margins. Karimata was inconsistent in his message, sometimes focusing on the base, and then sometimes backing away from saying much about it. That was a big problem.

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Japan ruling camp, opposition 1-1 in by-elections, Reuters, April 23, 2007

• [fact] “Shimajiri, a mother of four who ran on a platform stressing measures to make child-rearing easier, won support from a hefty chunk of those voters who shun party affiliation and whose decisions increasingly determine election results, NHK said.”

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Japan: The Real Meaning of the Okinawa Election Results

• “In today’s Upper House by-elections, the DPJ took Fukushima, while the LDP grabbed the seat that the DPJ incumbent had vacated to run (unsuccessfully) for governor. So the split is actually a net gain for the LDP. But the real story can be seen in Ginowan City, whose citizens have long suffered under the yoke of the US Hutenma airbase taking out a huge chunk of prime real estate. The Ginowan incumbent, supported by the DPJ among otheres, had opposed the Japan-US agreement to transfer to the city of Nago, because he wanted the airbase out of Okinawa altogether. This platform, if admirable, was surely an act of political suicide. The Ginowanese, nevertheless, enthusiastically supported it, if the results mean anything. Can this incredible act of self-sacrifice and altruism be explained in any other way than by imagining what the Ginowan local economy will look like, if the airbase ever leaves?”

Comment: The DPJ candiated for the Upper House certainly wasn’t clear on this issue. Perhaps he should have been.

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Women, DPJ score assembly election gains, Japan Times, April 24, 2007

• [fact] “Women accounted for a record 14 percent of all winners in Sunday’s elections for 8,024 municipal assembly seats in 310 cities, and the Democratic Party of Japan sharply increased its presence in city assemblies.”
• [fact] “Most political parties saw the number of their seats reduced, while the total quota of assembly members dropped due to municipal mergers encouraged by the government. The DPJ, however, bucked the trend, increasing its seats to 374 from 292 in the previous election.”

Comment: While the vast majority of candidates elected were non-affiliated candidates, its a positive sign that DPJ did so well. This will help them in the Upper House election.

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Op-Ed: Elections bolster Mr. Abe, Japan Times, April 25, 2007

• [opinion] Because of the April 22 election Abe will now have support to push through the Diet “a bill for a national referendum procedure for a constitutional revision and three education-related bills” [Yuck.]
• [fact] Yoshimasa Karimata, who was defeated in Okinawa by Shimajiri, was a former union leader.
• [fact] “[In] the mayoral election in Ginowan, Okinawa, voters re-elected incumbent Mayor Yoichi Iha from the opposition camp, who is calling for the removal of Futenma Air Station from Japanese soil.”
• [opinion] Regarding Futenma Air Station, the message sent by the vote was not that clear. After all a candidate who favors getting rid of the air base altogether was elected.
• [opinion] “The by-election results were rather unfavorable for Mr. Ozawa because they were held to fill two seats vacated by opposition Upper House members who left the chamber to run in gubernatorial elections.”
• [opinion] The four opposition parties did not work well together.
• [fact] Abe appeared twice in Okinawa, once even wearing tradition Okinawan attire.
• [opinion] “Mr. Ozawa, in contrast, concentrated on consolidating organizational votes.”

Comment: Nobody seems to like Ozawa. What does it mean to say he consolidated organizational votes. Democrats did do well in both prefectural assembly elections on April 8, and in city assemblies on April 22. Will this help them, and was that related to Ozawa “consolidating organizational votes”? The DPJ did do a good job of getting the swing vote in both prefectures, they just couldn’t get enough in Okinawa.

Op-ed: By-elections show floating voters key / Results leave ruling, opposition camps with food for thought, work to do, Yomiuri Shimbun, Arpril 24, 2007

• [fact] “a study of swing voters’ ballots in isolation shows that opposition candidates were able to garner a larger number of votes than ruling party rivals in both races.”
• [opinion] “In the House of Councillors election this summer–this year’s political showdown–the focus of attention likely will be which camp can attract more swing voters.”
• [fact] LDP “ordered all members of the prefectural assembly to lobby local companies and economic organizations for organized support.” [See how important the base is.]
• [fact] LDP also dispatched various diet members to campaign in Okinawa.
• [opinion] Democrats were weak in Okinawa because they have no “fundamental political foothold”. So getting the swing vote is not enough.
• [fact] DPJ “has no affiliated members in the prefectural assembly.”
• [fact] DPJ switched tactics in the middle of the race. First, they “emphasized the support of Rengo Okinawa, the prefectural branch of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation.” Then, “But in the middle of the campaign period, the DPJ switched its stance to emphasize its own policy pledges.” [No consistent message.]
• [fact] DPJ first avoided the U.S.Base issue, then in the final days emphasized these issues.
• [opinion?] “In the Fukushima by-election, Teruhiko Mashiko, backed by the DPJ, won by attracting conservative and swing voters, and by making his campaign less DPJ-focused.”
• [fact] Ozawa did not visit the prefecture at all during the campaign period.

Comment: Good analysis.

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Op-ed: Ruling coalition eyes summer poll after victory

• [opinion] “However, some lawmakers were concerned about the ruling coalition parties’ failure to win the two by-elections by taking advantage of the momentum generated by victories in two House of Representatives by-elections in October after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe assumed office.”
• [opinion] “[The] ruling coalition parties might have failed to win more support from swing voters compared with the DPJ.”
• [opinion] “LDP General Council Chairman Yuya Niwa was shocked by the large margin of defeat in the by-election in Fukushima.”
• [opinion] The LDP won in Okinawa becasue Abe went there twice personally.
• [fact] Ozawa’s strategy started with campaigning in underpopulated areas.

Comment: Wow. I guess Ozawa is quite Machiavellian here. You know, not how can we come up with an unbeatable message, but to the nitty-gritty of looking at the map and plotting out a sort of siege.

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Op-Ed: Polls highlight issues facing nation

• [opinion ] “The ruling camp’s victory seemed to reflect the wishes of voters to have the government do more to improve the prefecture’s economy and create jobs rather than working to resolve the U.S.-bases issue.”
• [opinion] “The outcome also appeared to indicate voters wanted a practical solution to the dispute over the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Futenma Air Station.”
• [fact] “However, despite the LDP’s all-out efforts, the race was tight. The LDP-backed candidate garnered far fewer votes from swing voters than the DPJ-supported candidate.”
• [fact] DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa called for support for its candidates, saying the administration of the LDP and New Komeito must be replaced because it “has abandoned rural regions and the weak in society.” [How does that translate into policy?]
• [opinion] “The DPJ did almost nothing but criticize the Abe administration, saying it had widened social and other gaps. With such an attitude, can the DPJ win wider support from voters?” [It could just as easily be said that all they do is criticize and as such they lack a clear message.]
• [opinion] “If Ozawa intends to turn the DPJ into a governing party, he must present the party’s basic policies explicitly through constructive debates in the Diet.” [I want to see the DPJ come up with clear policies that differentiate themselves from the LDP as well.]

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Op-ed: Parties split by-elections, Asahi Shimbun, April 24, 2007

• [opinion] “…the public did not express a clear-cut preference for either party.”
• [opinion] Because the DPJ had a lead in Fukushima, both parties focused on Okinawa. [This sort of contradicts the Yomiuri’s opinion.]
• [opinion] “Okinawa is one of “single-seat” constituencies that are expected to sway the summer Upper House election.”
• [opinion] Now that the LDP has won Okinawa, they are very relieved.
• [opinion] ” … by-elections traditionally tend to favor governing parties because they can afford to focus their attention on the few seats up for grabs.”
• [fact] The loss in Fukushima by the LDP is their second there following the governor election last November.
• [opinion] Okinawan people are uncomfortable with the recent changes in high school history textbooks. So this might help the DPJ. [You would have thoughts so, but look who won. I don’t follow the editors on this point.]
• [opinion] Voters are disillusioned with Abe.
• [fact] “The government has done nothing about the questionable handling of political funds involving Cabinet members like agriculture minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka.”
• [fact] “The Cabinet is also dragging its feet on legal revisions that would increase transparency of how political funds are spent.”
• [fact] Both elections were called to replace governors. Yet in Okinawa none of the opposition party’s candidates won the governorship.
• [opinion] Minshuto’s national base does not compare with that of the LDP.
• [opinion] DPJ lack the edge. They should criticize the LDP scandals some more. Ozawa is unimpressive. But LDP aren’t so charming themselves.

Comment: I don’t find this editorial so helpful. The DPJ should not criticize the LDP directly, but save that for the Asahi Shimbun. Let’s have some scathing editorials from them. What the DPJ needs to do is the vision thing. They need to have a great vision for the future of Japan that attracts voters. I don’t see Ozawa being able to do that. However, if it is Ozawa that is helping to get the increased presence of politicians at the local level, then that is good.

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LDP regains its election face; Ozawa loses ‘magic’

• [opinion] Ozawa looked like a schmuck. Abe looked pretty cool. [Whatever.]
• [opinion] Both parties tried to win the unaffiliated voters, and Abe’s efforts paid off. [This contradicts what the Yomiuri editors stated. They stated that though DPJ lost in Okinawa BUT they got most of the swing vote. The problem is clearly that DPJ still lack the kind of base that the LDP have.]
• [opinion] “The reason for the coalition’s success is the power of the ruling parties’ organized votes.”
• [fact] “In Sunday’s election in Okinawa Prefecture, 61 percent of unaffiliated voters picked opposition-supported candidate Karimata, while 37 percent chose ruling coalition-backed Shimajiri.”
• [fact] “Among unaffiliated voters, 66 percent picked Mashiko, while 19 percent chose LDP candidate Isamu Yamaguchi, 69.”
• [opinion] Ozawa has lost is the magic that once enabled him to win elections. [Huh? Look at the swing vote! Does anyone know how hard it is to win without a base? DPJ has got to win using the swing vote. I intepret this to mean that the Asahi editors don’t like Ozawa, not that he’s lost his … ah … magic.]

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More articles related April 22 election:

• Ruling bloc, opposition split by-elections, Yomiuri Shimbun
• Ex-city official defeats murdered mayor’s son-in-law in Nagasaki election, Mainichi Shimbun
• Opposition scores as local elections in Japan draw to a close
• Toyo voters were confused: Amari, Japan Times — Voters vote no for nuclear waste dump.

Blogs:

• Anthony Bianchi reelected to Inuyama Assembly: Naturalized citizen gets elected to to city assembly.
• TPR News for Tuesday, April 24, 2007: See politics.
• The beginning of a trend?

Articles related to April 8 election:

• Japan: Toyama Kouichi calls for revolution, bloggers reflect on freedom of speech
• DEBITO.ORG ELECTION SPECIAL APRIL 10 2007

Previous related articles in this blog:

• Shintaro Ishihara wins Tokyo Election - oh joy.
• Democratic Party of Japan makes large gains in local elections
• Officials seek to homogenize Japan by sanitizing Okinawa history