Liberal Japan

Here’s a some more stuff on the elections held last Sunday.

Debito now has a very substantial blog entry regarding the election, included are not only interesting personal anecdotes about voting and campaigning, but analysis about what the election means (at least in terms of the issues Debito is concerned with.) Also there are some interesting statistics about voter turnout and results in local elections.

Check it out:
Debito.org Election Special April 10 2007

Here’s two quotes with comments from the entry:

Of the 2544 seats up for grabs this election (prefectural and local), 1208 went to those supported by the ruling LDP, a drop from the 1309 up for grabs before. The strongest opposition party (which I support), DPJ, captured 374 seats, a rise from 205 last time. Souka Gakkai Koumeitou captured two more than last time to wind up with 180. The Communist Party just keeps on dwindling, dropping ten to 97. Same with Socialist-Party remnants Shamintou, losing big (from 73 to 52). Surprising was that the nonaffiliated (mushozoku) also dropped significantly, from 687 to 580 seats. And this in an election with no proportional representation (hireiku) vote, meaning political parties enjoyed no advantage of a second vote. There is a caveat. Due to political restructuring and consolidation of local governments, the number of seats up for election also dropped, from 2634 to 2532. So any gains at all (when the pie is shrinking enough to mean potential losses across the board) is significant. On this scale, the DPJ (despite the mixed fanfare and the high-profile LDP-equivalent Guv victories in Tokyo and Hokkaido) quietly had the rosiest results of all the parties.

Ishihara captured most the headlines but there were some stories presenting the elections as very hopeful of the DPJ.

Only the Communists ran against the powers that be (I presume the DPJ decided to save money and not field candidates). Good Old College Tries notwithstanding, the only place the JCP came close was in Nara, where they got a little under half the winner’s total vote. It’s amazing these people don’t just throw in the towel… (Personally, I’m glad they don’t.)

I’m not even sure “communism” is a fair word to apply to the Japanese Communist Party. In terms of human rights, they’ve done a great job of bringing attention to many important issues. Their internet site is an excellent resource. If they threw in the towel it’d be sad indeed.

The Democratic Party of Japan made a big leap in the first round of this year’s nationwide local elections on Sunday, sending a warning to the Liberal Democratic Party as the House of Councillors election looms. In the elections for members of 44 prefectural assemblies and 15 municipal assemblies of ordinance-designated major cities, which have similar powers to those of prefectures, the DPJ showed its resilience, especially in urban areas and some rural areas. In the 44 prefectural assembly elections, The LDP won 1,212 seats, a drop from 1,309 in the nationwide local elections in 2003. The percentage of seats secured by the LDP in all elections was 47.6 percent, the lowest in its history. The DPJ, on the other hand, gained 375 seats, a large increase from the 230 the party and the defunct Liberal Party, which merged with the DPJ, gained four years ago. The percentage of seats occupied by DPJ members increased to 14.7 percent . . . many LDP lawmakers expressed concern over the decrease in the share of prefectural assembly seats . .The DPJ won one seat in each of the Kochi and Kagoshima prefectural assembly elections, where the party previously had none. The DPJ also managed to maintain a seat at the Yamagata Prefectural Assembly, although the party’s foothold is weak there … The only prefectural assembly that does not have a DPJ member is the Okinawa Prefectural Assembly, which is not elected as part of the nationwide local elections . . . Under the so-called 1955 system, in which the LDP and the Japan Socialist Party–now the Social Democratic Party–were the two main political parties from 1955 until the early 1990s, the LDP occupied 52 percent to 60 percent of prefectural assembly seats, while the JSP secured about 13 percent to 21 percent of them . . . Sunday’s results indicated that the DPJ has solidified its position as the main opposition party in local assemblies to an extent that is equivalent to that of the JSP . . .The DPJ demonstrated its high potential, especially in urban areas. In the 15 major municipal assembly elections, the DPJ became the dominant party in Nagoya and Kawasaki, gaining 28 seats–five more than the LDP–in Nagoya, and 18 seats–one more than the LDP–in Kawasaki.

DPJ makes big leap in urban areas (The Daily Yomiuri)

I’m glad to see the Democratic Party is doing better. I think the main problem is they need to find a way to differentiate themselves from the LDP. Can anyone tell me what are the core values that separate the two parties? I’ll note that both parties have their share of Nationalists.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling camp won the prize of the Tokyo governorship and avoided nasty upsets elsewhere, but overall results in a flood of local weekend elections suggest complacency would be a mistake. That’s because Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost seats in local assemblies, while the main opposition Democratic Party boosted its number of local lawmakers – the work horses who will now campaign for the party in a July upper house poll. LDP-backed candidates beat Democratic-supported rivals in three of five prefectural governor contests where the two parties were in direct confrontation, including in Tokyo, where 74-year-old nationalist Shintaro Ishihara won a third term. The LDP, however, saw its presence in local assemblies drop by 101 seats to 1,212 while the Democrats won 375 seats, up 145 from four years ago, media surveys showed . . . The results still leave the Democrats at a disadvantage, but the trend could be worrisome for the ruling party, analysts said. . . ‘These are the people who campaign for all other elections. The main problem for the Democrats is that they don’t have candidates and they don’t have local campaigners, and this moves them a long way toward fixing both problems,’ said Steven Reed, a political science professor at Chuo University. . . The LDP’s own need to woo the unaffiliated could mean a shift toward policies that appeal to the mainstream voters who make up much of their ranks, some analysts said. That would mean greater emphasis on narrowing economic and social gaps than on Abe’s pet projects of revising the postwar pacifist constitution and putting more patriotism in the schools, said Nomura Securities senior economist Takahide Kiuchi . . .

Japan PM’s party can’t relax after local polls by Linda Sieg (Reuters)

There seems to be a lot of politicians talking about widening economic and social gaps. But if both parties end up merely promising handouts without any sense of long term policy, that will be disappointing.

Candidates backed by Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) won 375 seats in 44 prefectural assemblies Sunday, raising the main opposition party’s presence on the local level from its pre-election strength of 205 seats. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party won 1,212 seats, short of the majority of 1,273, and down from 1,309 before the elections. Although LDP-backed candidates won more than three times as many seats as Minshuto-supported contenders, opposition party officials were pleased with the results . . . In Nagoya, all Minshuto-backed candidates won, giving the party a majority in the assembly. Minshuto also became the top party represented in the Kawasaki assembly. Minshuto-supported candidates also fared well in Sapporo, Sendai, Yokohama and Kobe . . . Minshuto wants to strengthen its influence in local assemblies and chip away at the LDP’s power before the Upper House election in July. To do so, Minshuto took an aggressive approach for Sunday’s elections by supporting 476 candidates, an increase of about 80 percent from the previous unified elections four years ago. Minshuto tried to ensure there was at least one party-backed candidate in every electoral district, and at least two candidates in districts where three or more seats were available. The LDP took a defensive strategy, supporting 1,465 candidates, a decrease of 32 from four years ago, in an effort to maintain its pre-election strength.

Minshuto nearly doubles strength in prefectural assemblies (Asahi Shimbun)

I guess Minshuto is doing well in getting organized and making sure its candidates get on the different tickets. Perhaps all they need now is a good message.