Liberal Japan

Article:

Major workforce disruptions looming over Japan (Jan. 1, 2007)

Author:
Eric Prideaux

Source:
The Japan Times Online

Comment:
This article seems to suggest that one way that Japan can improve its oncoming work shortage is to employ more seniors. This is most likely not possible, as the senior labor force is already been tapped into quite a bit. According to Tekeyuki Tsuda, “… a substantial expansion in the number of elderly workers was also impossible, despite the rapid aging of the populace, because Japan’s labor participation rate for those over 60 was also quite high and had remained stable for decades.[Despite the early retirement age of 60 in Japan, 56.6 percent of those between the ages of 60-64 and 24.8 percent of those over the age of 65 are still working (1994 figures).]” Tsuda also notes that the situation is similar for females by the way. So, like it or not, immigrants are more than likely going to be the *only* way to handle the labor shortage. If Tsuda is correct, then this article is mostly in error.

Notes from the article:

1. Quote: “Come spring, the first of Japan’s 6.8 million baby boomers — born between 1947 and 1949 — will begin to retire.”

2. Quote: “To ease the strain, experts say Japan must simultaneously pull off a dizzying array of feats: Encourage seniors to work longer; coax couples to reproduce; better integrate women into the labor force and considerably loosen restrictions on immigration. Failing to do this, they say, will have dire consequences.”

Comment: As stated above the first two options have already been taken. So that leaves only the third option, immigrants.

3. Article notes the negative effect a decreasing workforce will have on the economy. Also, it will have a disastrous effect on the social services the government provides, as they will be vastly underfunded.

4. Article discusses job finding services for seniors and the positive effect of work on seniors.

5. Quote: “Whether voluntarily or not, many more Japanese will find themselves working longer due to the 2004 revision to the Law Concerning the Stabilization of Employment of Older Workers, which requires companies to gradually raise their mandatory retirement age to 65 by fiscal 2013. If everything goes as planned, not all 60-year-old baby boomers will have to retire this year.”

Comment: This is interesting, but the question is how many seniors are *already* working. This article presents *no* statistics. As Tsuda points out, already in 1994 well over half of those between 60 and 65 were *already* working!

6. Article details how government is trying to increase the birthrate of couples, and how one effective method might be by providing more services to help families raise children.

Comment: There might be something to this, but note that a declining birth rate is a problem for most developed countries now. So it might have something to do with people with wealth. Perhaps those with larger disposable incomes simply want to focus more on their own life than on raising children. This is something I’d like to look into more.

7. Quote: “… judging by a much-discussed report published in 2000 by the U.N. Population Division titled “Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Aging Populations?” According to the study, if Japan is to maintain the size of its population at a level of 127.5 million, “the country would need 17 million net immigrants up to the year 2050, or an average of 381,000 immigrants per year between 2005 and 2050. By 2050, the immigrants and their descendants would total 22.5 million and comprise 17.7 percent of the total population of the country.” The study went on to say that keeping the ratio of workers to retirees at its 1995 level of almost five to one would require Japan to allow in an average of 10 million immigrants a year — bringing the entire population to 818 million in 2050, with 87 percent of that total comprised of recent immigrants and their descendants.”

Comment: Incredible.